On July 13, at the methanol anti-dumping work conference and methanol market analysis meeting held in Beijing, representatives of major domestic methanol manufacturers discussed the extension of the period of methanol anti-dumping investigation by the Ministry of Commerce. With the support of parks and others, the pressure on environmental protection is only increasing, the supply continues to shrink, the terminal demand for fluorine is relatively strong, and the industry chain boom will continue to be maintained.

Fluorite resources are scarce, the government restricts production, and environmental protection pressure reduces production. Fluorite is a non-renewable resource. According to the current disclosure, my country's fluorite reserves are only enough to be mined for 11 years, and it is the country with the lowest recovery ratio in the world. Stone is included in my country's "strategic minerals directory". In addition, fluorite mining is a highly polluting industry, and the increasing environmental protection policies have made fluorite production in short supply.

Hydrofluoric acid is a high-risk chemical, and environmental protection pressure has forced small and medium-sized enterprises to withdraw from production capacity, and the by-product waste acid swelling warehouse has compressed production. Hydrofluoric acid is the throat fortress of the fluorine chemical industry. As a high-risk chemical, hydrofluoric acid is difficult to plan to enter the park. About 50% of the total potential production capacity of the Yangtze River Environmental Protection and Qingdao Summit may be affected. The waste acid from by-products is difficult to digest, and the phenomenon of small and medium-sized enterprises' swelling warehouses continues. This round of hydrofluoric acid price difference has increased significantly and is expected to remain high.

Refrigerant supply is limited, and rigid demand is still there. Supply side: Affected by the tightening of environmental protection, the expansion of the third-generation refrigerant is likely to be lower than expected, and the quota for the second-generation refrigerant continues to shrink due to the policy; the demand side: as of April 2018, the cumulative air-conditioning output was +12.9% year-on-year, and the export volume The cumulative growth rate is +13.7% year-on-year, and the absolute growth rate is relatively high. The export volume of refrigerators is +4.0% year-on-year. In addition, my country's huge maintenance market supports the relatively rigid demand for refrigerants.

The supply and demand of fluoropolymers are tight, driving the industry chain's boom. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic demand for fluoropolymers will grow by 17%. It is expected that the overall growth rate of more than 10% will be maintained during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, and the demand growth rates for PTFE, FEP and PVDF will be no less than that respectively. 8%, 10% and 10%. At present, the total domestic production capacity of PTFE is 120,000 tons, and the annual demand is about 104,000 tons. The industry's operating rate is relatively high. Driven by demand and cost, the price of PTFE suspension has risen 37% to 78,000 yuan/ton in the past year.

Investment strategy: Continue to be optimistic about the leading fluorine chemical refrigerants with a high degree of integration, strong raw material self-sufficiency, excellent environmental governance, and profitability that are expected to continue to improve. Juhua shares are recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Hong Kong shareholder Yue Group; upstream, it is recommended to pay attention Fluorite is a scarce target gold stone resource.